Math 3080-1 TERM PROJECT Due Monday, Treibergs April 25, 2016 Instructions You are to work alone on this project, using only your texts and notes. You may ask either Hanlei Zhu or me questions but noone else. In answering each question, you should provide a typewritten response with references to statistical output that you will attach to the back of your report. Be sure to number the pages and refer to the appropriate page number. The response to each question should conclude with a brief summary of your findings described in the context of the practical situation and written for an audience of non-statisticians. By submitting this assignment, you are representing that it is your own work and that you have followed the rules associated with the assignment. Incidents of academic misconduct (including cheating, plagiarizing, research misconduct, misrepresenting ones own work, and/or inappropriately collaborating on an assignment) will be dealt with severely, in accordance with the Student Code (http://www.regulations.utah.edu/academics/6-400.html). A single instance of academic misconduct may result in a failing grade for the course. Multiple instances of academic misconduct may result in probation, suspension or dismissal from a program, suspension or dismissal from the University, or revocation of a degree or certificate. Questions on the Sailboat Data Predicting residuary resistance of sailing yachts at the initial design stage is useful for evaluating performance and for estimating the required propulsive power. Inputs include the basic hull dimensions and the boat velocity. Your task is to predict the resistance of the hull from the other variables. The data consists of 308 full-scale experiments performed on 22 different Frans Maas hull forms at the Ship Hydromechanics Laboratory, Maritime and Transport Technology Department, Technical University of Delft. Source: Lichman, M. (2013). UCI Machine Learning Repository [http://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml]. Irvine, CA: University of California, School of Information and Computer Science. Variables These experiments include 1. Longitudinal position of the center of buoyancy, adimensional. 2. Prismatic coefficient, adimensional. 3. Length-displacement ratio, adimensional. 4. Beam-draft ratio, adimensional. 5. Length-beam ratio, adimensional. 6. Froude number, adimensional. 7. Residuary resistance per unit weight of displacement, adimensional. 1. Using the Sailboat Data, develop a multiple linear regression model to predict the residuary resistance from all other variables. Be sure to consider transformations of the variables as well as powers of the variables and interactions between the independent variables. Are there any variables you would delete from the model? If so, explain why. Remove the variables you do not find useful and give the best model you would recommend. Give the reasons for your choice. Perform a thorough residual analysis, discuss the usefulness of your model and discuss whether the model assumptions are reasonably satisfied. Sailboat Data -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.125 0.11 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.150 0.27 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.175 0.47 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.200 0.78 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.225 1.18 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.250 1.82 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.275 2.61 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.300 3.76 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.325 4.99 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.350 7.16 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.375 11.93 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.400 20.11 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.425 32.75 -2.3 0.568 4.78 3.99 3.17 0.450 49.49 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.125 0.04 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.150 0.17 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.175 0.37 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.200 0.66 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.225 1.06 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.250 1.59 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.275 2.33 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.300 3.29 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.325 4.61 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.350 7.11 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.375 11.99 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.400 21.09 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.425 35.01 -2.3 0.569 4.78 3.04 3.64 0.450 51.80 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.125 0.09 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.150 0.29 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.175 0.56 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.200 0.86 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.225 1.31 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.250 1.99 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.275 2.94 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.300 4.21 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.325 5.54 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.350 8.25 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.375 13.08 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.400 21.40 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.425 33.14 -2.3 0.565 4.78 5.35 2.76 0.450 50.14 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.125 0.20 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.150 0.35 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.175 0.65 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.200 0.93 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.225 1.37 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.250 1.97 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.275 2.83 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.300 3.99 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.325 5.19 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.350 8.03 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.375 12.86 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.400 21.51 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.425 33.97 -2.3 0.564 5.10 3.95 3.53 0.450 50.36 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.125 0.20 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.150 0.35 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.175 0.65 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.200 0.93 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.225 1.37 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.250 1.97 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.275 2.83 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.300 3.99 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.325 5.19 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.350 8.03 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.375 12.86 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.400 21.51 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.425 33.97 -2.4 0.574 4.36 3.96 2.76 0.450 50.36 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.125 0.12 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.150 0.26 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.175 0.43 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.200 0.69 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.225 1.09 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.250 1.67 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.275 2.46 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.300 3.43 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.325 4.62 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.350 6.86 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.375 11.56 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.400 20.63 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.425 34.50 -2.4 0.568 4.34 2.98 3.15 0.450 54.23 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.125 0.28 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.150 0.44 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.175 0.70 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.200 1.07 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.225 1.57 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.250 2.23 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.275 3.09 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.300 4.09 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.325 5.82 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.350 8.28 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.375 12.80 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.400 20.41 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.425 32.34 -2.3 0.562 5.14 4.95 3.17 0.450 47.29 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.125 0.20 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.150 0.38 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.175 0.64 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.200 0.97 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.225 1.36 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.250 1.98 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.275 2.91 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.300 4.35 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.325 5.79 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.350 8.04 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.375 12.15 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.400 19.18 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.425 30.09 -2.4 0.585 4.78 3.84 3.32 0.450 44.38 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.125 0.15 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.150 0.32 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.175 0.55 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.200 0.86 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.225 1.24 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.250 1.76 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.275 2.49 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.300 3.45 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.325 4.83 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.350 7.37 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.375 12.76 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.400 21.99 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.425 35.64 -2.2 0.546 4.78 4.13 3.07 0.450 53.07 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.125 0.11 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.150 0.24 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.175 0.49 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.200 0.79 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.225 1.28 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.250 1.96 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.275 2.88 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.300 4.14 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.325 5.96 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.350 9.07 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.375 14.93 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.400 24.13 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.425 38.12 0.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.450 55.44 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.125 0.07 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.150 0.18 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.175 0.40 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.200 0.70 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.225 1.14 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.250 1.83 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.275 2.77 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.300 4.12 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.325 5.41 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.350 7.87 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.375 12.71 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.400 21.02 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.425 34.58 -5.0 0.565 4.77 3.99 3.15 0.450 51.77 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.125 0.08 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.150 0.26 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.175 0.50 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.200 0.83 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.225 1.28 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.250 1.90 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.275 2.68 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.300 3.76 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.325 5.57 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.350 8.76 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.375 14.24 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.400 23.05 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.425 35.46 0.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.450 51.99 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.125 0.08 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.150 0.24 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.175 0.45 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.200 0.77 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.225 1.19 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.250 1.76 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.275 2.59 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.300 3.85 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.325 5.27 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.350 7.74 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.375 12.40 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.400 20.91 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.425 33.23 -5.0 0.565 5.10 3.94 3.51 0.450 49.14 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.125 0.08 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.150 0.25 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.175 0.46 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.200 0.75 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.225 1.11 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.250 1.57 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.275 2.17 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.300 2.98 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.325 4.42 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.350 7.84 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.375 14.11 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.400 24.14 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.425 37.95 -2.3 0.530 5.11 3.69 3.51 0.450 55.17 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.125 0.10 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.150 0.23 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.175 0.47 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.200 0.76 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.225 1.15 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.250 1.65 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.275 2.28 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.300 3.09 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.325 4.41 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.350 7.51 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.375 13.77 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.400 23.96 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.425 37.38 -2.3 0.530 4.76 3.68 3.16 0.450 56.46 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.125 0.05 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.150 0.17 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.175 0.35 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.200 0.63 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.225 1.01 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.250 1.43 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.275 2.05 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.300 2.73 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.325 3.87 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.350 7.19 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.375 13.96 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.400 25.18 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.425 41.34 -2.3 0.530 4.34 2.81 3.15 0.450 62.42 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.125 0.03 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.150 0.18 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.175 0.40 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.200 0.73 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.225 1.30 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.250 2.16 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.275 3.35 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.300 5.06 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.325 7.14 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.350 10.36 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.375 15.25 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.400 23.15 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.425 34.62 0.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.450 51.50 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.125 0.06 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.150 0.15 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.175 0.34 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.200 0.63 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.225 1.13 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.250 1.85 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.275 2.84 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.300 4.34 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.325 6.20 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.350 8.62 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.375 12.49 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.400 20.41 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.425 32.46 -5.0 0.600 4.78 4.24 3.15 0.450 50.94 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.125 0.16 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.150 0.32 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.175 0.59 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.200 0.92 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.225 1.37 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.250 1.94 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.275 2.62 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.300 3.70 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.325 5.45 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.350 9.45 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.375 16.31 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.400 27.34 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.425 41.77 0.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.450 60.85 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.125 0.09 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.150 0.24 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.175 0.47 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.200 0.78 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.225 1.21 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.250 1.85 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.275 2.62 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.300 3.69 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.325 5.07 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.350 7.95 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.375 13.73 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.400 23.55 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.425 37.14 -5.0 0.530 4.78 3.75 3.15 0.450 55.87 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.125 0.01 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.150 0.16 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.175 0.39 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.200 0.73 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.225 1.24 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.250 1.96 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.275 3.04 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.300 4.46 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.325 6.31 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.350 8.68 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.375 12.39 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.400 20.14 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.425 31.77 -2.3 0.600 5.10 4.17 3.51 0.450 47.13 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.125 0.04 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.150 0.17 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.175 0.36 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.200 0.64 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.225 1.02 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.250 1.62 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.275 2.63 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.300 4.15 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.325 6.00 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.350 8.47 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.375 12.27 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.400 19.59 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.425 30.48 -2.3 0.600 4.34 4.23 2.73 0.450 46.66 Questions on the Sea Ice Data Data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. It was believed for a long time that the a significant portion of the Arctic Ocean will remain frozen all year long for the entire twenty-first century. However, in the last decade, scientists have begun to notice that the extent of summer sea ice is declining rapidly indicating changing climate. A loss of sea ice causes further climate change because the much darker open water absorbs more sunlight than floating ice. Variables Year Average Monthly Arctic sea ice extent in millions of square kilometers for each September 2. Develop a simple regression model to describe the average September sea ice extent as a function of year. Test the assumptions of your model and summarize your findings. What does the model predict as the sea ice extent for September 2016? Extrapolating wildly, when does your model say there will be no more September sea ice? 3. If y = average September sea ice extent and x = year, examine other models including higher degree polynomials and at least two transformations of the (x,y) data that might improve your fit. Discuss your findings and choose a final model that you think best describes the data. Explain your choice. What does your final model now predict as the average extent of sea ice in September 2016 and when does your model say there will be no more September sea ice? Sea Ice Data Year September Arctic Sea Ice Extent (1,000,000 sq km) 1979 7.2 1980 7.85 1981 7.25 1982 7.45 1983 7.52 1984 7.17 1985 6.93 1986 7.54 1987 7.48 1988 7.49 1989 7.04 1990 6.24 1991 6.55 1992 7.55 1993 6.5 1994 7.18 1995 6.13 1996 7.88 1997 6.74 1998 6.56 1999 6.24 2000 6.32 2001 6.75 2002 5.96 2003 6.15 2004 6.05 2005 5.57 2006 5.92 2007 4.3 2008 4.68 2009 5.36 2010 4.9 2011 4.61 2012 3.85 2013 5.09 2014 5.11 2015 4.56